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Saturday, 16 May 2026

Possible but Improbable



Some may ask, " if I may ask ... if you don't feel like you have a high probability of winning, why would you invest so much time and money into running?"

I remember Mike Patterson once advised me when I put my name forward in North Kanata, "there is no combination of words in the english language that could convince the voters!"

Ottawa voters are so heavily/ overwhelmingly committed to their past electoral decisions, voting differently is like admitting they were wrong. 

As Twain admonished...its is easier to fool someone than convince them they have been fooled.

In 2022, of the over 100 challengers to incumbents exactly none won.

Candidates like myself run in municipal elections even when they are  likely to lose for several practical and sometimes very personal reasons:

  • Build for the future: 
  • Gain name recognition, networks, and
  • experience for higher office later. 
  • Many politicians start with local losses like McKenney, MPP 
This will be my third attempt, and afterall, you need candidates in order to even have an election! Make your representatives accountable!
  • I am trying to shape the agenda: 
  • I want to force public debate on key local issues (affordable housing that is not a ghetto mentality, reasonable taxes, fsd transit services, east end crossing, open public data, use of AI, ) and 
  • pressure pandering incumbents like King not to continue his pandering ways
This is my principle driver.
  • Civic duty and fulfillment: 
  • Genuine desire to serve the community and 
  • stand for what I believe in - put my money where my mouth is
These are my motivations.

Some volunteer in other ways. I choose and I really am interested in municipal politics.
  • Party/ideological goals: none
  • Keep the base energized, test messages, and maintain a ballot presence for future cycles.does not apply.
In fact, I promise, if elected, I will not run again...no pandering!
  • Low barriers, high upside: 
  • Cheap campaigns, small electorates, and low turnout mean a strong underdog showing (or even a win) is possible....though improbable in Ottawa.

In short, the local Rideau Rockcliffe race is a low-stakes entry point with real long-term value for the community— even defeat advances my ideas and causes.

The idea is to inform the voters, and help them make a good choice. If voters choose the best candidate then council will be the best it can be. With the best council, the city of Ottawa will be the best it can be.

Vote wisely, vote for Peter Karwacki





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