Candidate for City Council - Rideau Rockcliffe peterkarwacki.overbrook@gmail.com
You don’t need to be a certified PMP to know this: the later you find a defect, the more it costs to fix it. In software development, the rule of thumb is that fixing a bug in requirements costs $1, in design costs $10, in coding costs $100, and in production (live operations) costs $1,000 or more.
In heavy civil infrastructure like rail transit, the multiplier is even steeper because you’re dealing with physical steel, concrete, and specialized labour:
We are in the “Operations” phase. The LRT is carrying passengers. The axle-bearing defect, the St. Laurent concrete degradation, and the Moodie drainage failure are all being discovered right now—at the absolute worst point on the cost curve.
Scrapping the entire LRT system is the ultimate "late-stage" change order. In project management terms, asking to decommission a $2.1B+ asset that is already largely built, operational, and connected to a complex urban fabric—and replacing it with a fleet of hundreds of buses—is a massive scope change executed at the absolute worst possible moment.
The current repair bills are high:
These are painful but containable. They are localized fixes to specific components.
Scrapping the LRT would require:
That is not a fix; that is a complete project restart—at the 1,000x cost multiplier.
The iron law of project management dictates: Once you are in operations, you contain the defects and improve the asset; you do not demolish the asset and start over. That would be the costliest decision in Ottawa’s history.
— Excerpt from a policy recommendation to Ottawa City Council, August 2026
Let’s address the elephant in the room. After the axle-bearing catastrophe, the flooded rail bed at Moodie, and the looming 5-week shutdown at St. Laurent, the question on every frustrated commuter’s mind is: “Why don’t we just tear it all down and go back to buses?”
It’s an emotionally appealing thought. But as a policy recommendation, it is a dangerous illusion that would set Ottawa’s transit back by a generation, cost taxpayers billions more, and leave riders with an even more unreliable system.
Here is my honest, data-driven recommendation to City Council: Do not abandon the LRT. Instead, adopt a dual-track strategy—fix the governance of the train and aggressively rebuild bus service as a reliable complement. Here is exactly how to do it.
Before we talk solutions, we have to kill this myth permanently. Scrapping the LRT is not a realistic option for three concrete reasons:
A single two-car Alstom LRT train holds up to 600 passengers. An articulated bus, even at crush load, holds about 85 to 110. To replace just one rush-hour train, you would need 5 to 7 buses—and they would all have to run perfectly on time, which they currently do not.
Returning to buses assumes buses are a viable fallback. They are not—at least not right now.
Ottawa has already invested billions. Walking away now means writing off that investment, paying massive contractual penalties, and spending hundreds of millions more to buy new buses, build new garages, and hire hundreds of new staff.
In 2006, council cancelled the North-South LRT project, overturning 55 prior votes. That decision set transit back over a decade and cost taxpayers millions in penalties. Repeating that error would be catastrophic.
The 2022 public inquiry didn't recommend scrapping the LRT; it made 103 recommendations to fix leadership, oversight, and communication. Council must:
Even with a perfect LRT, Ottawa needs a robust bus network. Council should:
Council must stop withholding bad news. The Stantec report on St. Laurent Station was received in April 2026 but not released for over three months. That erodes public trust. Council should:
Cutting fares is popular, but as councillor Jeff Leiper wisely put it: "It doesn't really matter how much transit costs when you can't rely on it." I recommend:
"Going back to buses" is not a realistic option—it’s a surrender that would leave riders with worse service, cost taxpayers billions, and set Ottawa back a generation.
The only viable path forward is dual-track: fix the LRT and rebuild bus service as a reliable complement, not a replacement.
It’s not glamorous, and it won’t be quick. But it is the only way out of this mess that doesn’t make things exponentially worse. Council must choose reality over rhetoric—and get to work.
Transit Policy Analysis
| Category | Sub-Category / Area | Issue / Action | Details & Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 THE CORE PROBLEMS – WHY IT'S A MESS | |||
| Core Problem | LRT Mechanical Failures | Axle bearing defects (spalling & shelling) |
|
| Core Problem | Fragile Infrastructure | Overhead power lines (catenary) vulnerable to weather |
|
| Core Problem | Staffing Shortages | Lack of trained rail controllers & operators |
|
| Core Problem | Unreliable Bus Network | Soaring trip cancellations, aging fleet, mechanic shortage |
|
| Core Problem | Financial Crisis | Massive operating deficit |
|
| Core Problem | Governance Failures | Poor contract design & oversight |
|
| 🛠️ IMMEDIATE & SHORT-TERM FIXES | |||
| Short-Term | Sourcing Parts | Acquired axles from Metrolinx |
|
| Short-Term | Service Restoration | Gradual return to two-car trains |
|
| Short-Term | Staffing Up | Continuing to hire & train employees |
|
| Short-Term | Infrastructure Protection | $2M "heat tracing" plan for overhead wires |
|
| Short-Term | Bus Relief | Exploring purchase of new buses |
|
| 🏛️ LONG-TERM STRUCTURAL CHANGES | |||
| Long-Term | Provincial "Upload" | Mayor advocating for Metrolinx takeover |
|
| Long-Term | Inquiry Recommendations | Implementing 103 recommendations from 2022 public inquiry |
|
| Long-Term | Bus Planning Overhaul | Auditor General's report (June 2026) – 10 recommendations |
|
| 💳 RESPONDING TO RIDER FRUSTRATION (Compensation Options) | |||
| Compensation | Retroactive Refunds | 50% refund for Presto users (Jan 22 – Mar 31) |
|
| Compensation | Future Discounts | 50% discount on future monthly passes |
|
| Compensation | Free Transit Days | Two free "familiarization" weekends |
|
| 🧭 THE PATH FORWARD – Summary | |||
|
📌 Patience for Technical Fixes: Mechanical issues on the LRT will take years to fully resolve. 💰 Significant Investment: Implementing improvements (heat tracing, new buses) requires substantial capital. ⚖️ Systemic Overhaul: The most fundamental changes will come from improved governance, better planning, and the potential provincial takeover of the LRT. |
|||
| Category | Sub-Category / Area | Issue / Action | Details & Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 THE CORE PROBLEMS – WHY IT'S A MESS | |||
| Core Problem | LRT Mechanical Failures | Axle bearing defects (spalling & shelling) |
|
| Core Problem | Fragile Infrastructure | Overhead power lines (catenary) vulnerable to weather |
|
| Core Problem | Staffing Shortages | Lack of trained rail controllers & operators |
|
| Core Problem | Unreliable Bus Network | Soaring trip cancellations, aging fleet, mechanic shortage |
|
| Core Problem | Financial Crisis | Massive operating deficit |
|
| Core Problem | Governance Failures | Poor contract design & oversight |
|
| 🛠️ IMMEDIATE & SHORT-TERM FIXES | |||
| Short-Term | Sourcing Parts | Acquired axles from Metrolinx |
|
| Short-Term | Service Restoration | Gradual return to two-car trains |
|
| Short-Term | Staffing Up | Continuing to hire & train employees |
|
| Short-Term | Infrastructure Protection | $2M "heat tracing" plan for overhead wires |
|
| Short-Term | Bus Relief | Exploring purchase of new buses |
|
| 🏛️ LONG-TERM STRUCTURAL CHANGES | |||
| Long-Term | Provincial "Upload" | Mayor advocating for Metrolinx takeover |
|
| Long-Term | Inquiry Recommendations | Implementing 103 recommendations from 2022 public inquiry |
|
| Long-Term | Bus Planning Overhaul | Auditor General's report (June 2026) – 10 recommendations |
|
| 💳 RESPONDING TO RIDER FRUSTRATION (Compensation Options) | |||
| Compensation | Retroactive Refunds | 50% refund for Presto users (Jan 22 – Mar 31) |
|
| Compensation | Future Discounts | 50% discount on future monthly passes |
|
| Compensation | Free Transit Days | Two free "familiarization" weekends |
|
| 🌊 NEW CRISIS: MOODIE STATION FLOOD DAMAGE (Stage 2 West Extension) | |||
| Moodie Station | Flood Damage from July 1 Storm | Rail bed destroyed; tracks & catenary must be replaced |
|
| Moodie Station | Impact on Other Stations | Four other stations on Line 3 also affected |
|
| Moodie Station | Timeline & Opening Delays | Summer 2027 opening now in doubt |
|
| 🏗️ IMPENDING CRISIS: ST. LAURENT STATION CONSTRUCTION | |||
| St. Laurent Station | Crumbling Concrete Ceiling | Major rehabilitation required – "serious risk" to public |
|
| St. Laurent Station | Service Disruptions | Months of closures, including full 5–6 week shutdown |
|
| St. Laurent Station | Timeline | Construction still ~2 years away |
|
| St. Laurent Station | Transparency Concerns | Report withheld from public for months |
|
| 🧭 THE PATH FORWARD – Summary | |||
|
📌 Patience for Technical Fixes: Mechanical issues on the LRT will take years to fully resolve. 🌊 Unexpected Setbacks: The Moodie Station flood damage has cast doubt on the 2027 west extension opening, with tracks and electrical systems needing full replacement[reference:35][reference:36]. 🏗️ More Disruption Ahead: The St. Laurent Station rehabilitation will bring months of closures, including a 5–6 week full shutdown of both tracks, likely in 2028 or 2029[reference:37]. 💰 Significant Investment: Implementing improvements (heat tracing, new buses, Moodie repairs, St. Laurent rebuild) requires substantial capital. ⚖️ Systemic Overhaul: The most fundamental changes will come from improved governance, better planning, and the potential provincial takeover of the LRT. |
|||
Rawlson King will list the title. It sounds like leadership.
The job is narrower. The committee meets once a month to review staff reports under the Ontario Heritage Act—mostly routine designation notices and minor alteration approvals. The chair runs the agenda and moves the recommendations forward. That is the substance.
On the highest-profile files in his own ward the pattern was reaction, not initiative. 24 Sussex is federal; the city has no real power. The unauthorized demolition of the Uganda residence at 235 Mariposa happened while the property sat on the heritage watch list inside a Heritage Conservation District. Diplomatic limits constrained enforcement, and the committee approved a conditioned replacement after the fact.
The clearest illustration of process over principle is 1 Rideau—the Château Laurier addition. King called the final negotiated design “middling, average and of ordinary design” that “represents ‘good enough.’” He had earlier voted with those trying to revoke the original permit. When the compromise version reached the majority, he sided with it. Disagreement on the record, then alignment with the winning side.
He elevated the old sub-committee and processed a steady stream of designations. The work was competent. The workload was light. The independent impact remained limited.
The title is accurate. The record underneath it is thinner than the label implies. When the résumé line appears, the gap—and the flip—is fair to note.
If you're 18 or older, you can vote this October. If you ride the bus, you're chasing an affordable place to live, or you get around on two wheels — this is the election that shapes your day-to-day.
If OC Transpo doesn't get you to class or your shift on time, that's not bad luck — council sets the budget, the fare structure, and who actually sits on the committees overseeing service delivery.
Units delivered every year fall well short of the city's own targets. Whether you can find a place you can afford here gets decided in the budget and the zoning votes — every single year.
If two wheels is how you get around — because it's cheaper, faster, or just how you like to move — the safety and reach of that network isn't guaranteed. It's a council choice.
Posted to the campaign blog — Rideau-Rockcliffe, Ward 13
There's a version of "police discretion" everyone actually wants: an officer notices something wrong and follows it, instead of waiting to be told. Nobody runs for council on the platform of "less initiative, please." So when a case comes along where the Ottawa Police Service disciplined an officer for exactly that kind of self-directed digging, it's worth asking honestly whether the Service overreacted — or whether the case reveals something the Ottawa Police Services Board still hasn't fixed.
Between June 2020 and January 2022, then-Detective Helen Grus of the Ottawa Police Service's Sexual Assault and Child Abuse unit accessed the Records Management System files of nine infant or child death cases she wasn't assigned to, without logging her involvement. In January 2022, she called the father of one deceased infant to ask about the mother's COVID-19 vaccination status — without the lead detective's knowledge. She said she'd noticed what looked like a doubling or tripling of infant deaths and believed the pattern warranted scrutiny of a possible vaccine link.
A three-year Police Services Act disciplinary hearing found her guilty of discreditable conduct in March 2025. The hearing officer, retired Superintendent Chris Renwick, found the investigation had "no checks and balances, no consultation with the coroner or medical community," and was undertaken "without the knowledge or authorization" of the Service. The Ottawa Police Services Board separately settled a related privacy complaint with one of the affected families.
Grus's defence argued something the Board should sit with: several officers, including detectives and a sergeant, testified under oath that ad hoc access to RMS files for police-related reasons is common practice. Her lawyer pointed out that neither the Police Services Act nor OPS policy actually defines what an "unauthorized project" is. The tribunal ultimately found her conduct crossed a line — but it drew that line after the fact, in a three-year hearing, not from a standard that existed beforehand.
The instinct to defend initiative is correct in general. Rule-bound, checklist-only policing has its own well-documented failure mode: officers who see something and don't act because it wasn't formally assigned to them. But this case isn't really a story about initiative being punished. It's a story about the absence of a written line between:
Good initiative stays visible: it gets logged, and it gets reported up so the organization can catch errors or redirect it. What made this case costly wasn't the underlying question Grus wanted answered — it was that nine files were accessed with no record of why, and a grieving father was contacted with no one else in the loop. The risk of being wrong landed entirely on families who had no say in it.
None of this is about wanting officers to do less. It's about making sure the initiative we say we want comes with a visible trail and a defined ceiling — so an officer who's right gets vindicated quickly, and an officer who's wrong gets caught before the damage is done, not three years and one privacy settlement later.
Based on current events and emerging trends, here are the ten biggest issues that will shape Ottawa and my ward, Rideau‑Rockcliffe, over the next four years. From transit shutdowns to housing pressures, infrastructure debt to climate adaptation – these are the challenges and opportunities that demand our attention.
A major crisis for Ward 13: the St‑Laurent LRT station must close for extensive repairs. The tunnel, originally built for buses in the 1980s, suffers from severe structural decay – corroded metal framing and crumbling concrete.
Affordability and homelessness remain the top concerns for Ottawa residents – and Ward 13 is no exception.
The new mayor and council inherit a city with daunting financial liabilities.
Crime and public safety are rising concerns, with notable increases in certain offenses.
The city has launched “Climate Ready Ottawa”, a new five‑year action plan (2026–2030) to prepare for climate impacts.
Ottawa’s economy faces short‑term pressures with modest growth expectations.
The 2026 municipal election brings a new mayor and many new councillors – a chance for significant change.
Work on the bridges connecting Ottawa and Gatineau will cause major traffic disruptions.
Several road safety projects funded by the province will be implemented in Ward 13.
Ward 13 – with its mix of affluent and working‑class neighbourhoods – will face intense development pressure.
Looking ahead – These ten issues are deeply interconnected. The decisions made by the new city council over the next four years will be critical in determining how Ottawa and Ward 13 navigate this period of significant change. From transit reliability to housing affordability, fiscal discipline to climate resilience, there is no shortage of work ahead. But with the right focus and accountability, we can build a more sustainable and inclusive future.
Civic Accountability Dossier · Ward 13
A four-year outlook grounded in current budgets, staff reports, and the trend lines already in motion — independent of who wins in October.
Every campaign promises a vision. Fewer point to the forces already moving whether or not any candidate touches them. Here are the ten that will define Ottawa's next term — with the ones landing hardest on Ward 13 flagged below.
The National Capital Region's federal headcount has already dropped by thousands in a single year, with Ottawa posting the steepest job losses of any Ontario city. This is the economic current under nearly everything else on this list — tax base, transit ridership, housing demand, downtown vacancy.
Staff have floated a new property tax levy to chip away at a repair backlog that current plans only partly cover, against an annual funding gap that could approach $230 million. Expect this fight to define at least one budget cycle.
Wheel-bearing failures, single-car service, and a fleet still catching up to demand keep transit as one of the most contested files at City Hall — regardless of who's making the case for it.
Years after engineers flagged an urgent structural risk, funding and tendering are finally catching up. Bus-bridging, construction disruption, and public pressure on the station sitting inside Ward 13 will land on whoever holds this seat.
Announced housing partnerships continue to move slower than the units they promise, while the count of residents in chronic homelessness keeps climbing — a trend now colliding with a new wave of federal layoffs.
With its anchor tenant gone, the "no taxpayer risk" promise that carried the project through council faces its first genuine stress test just as a new term begins.
How the next mayor wields (or limits) provincially granted strong-mayor authority will shape how much real oversight individual councillors retain, Ward 13's included.
Auditor findings on reporting accuracy and budget tracking at the Police Services Board point to a structural gap, not a one-term issue — one the next council inherits either way.
West Rockcliffe and Manor Park's combined-sewer legacy makes them structurally exposed to storm-driven flooding that's now recurring rather than exceptional — a hard infrastructure fact no election changes on its own.
City departments are already using AI tools faster than council has built disclosure or audit standards for them — a genuinely new-term problem, not a legacy one.
