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Tuesday, 9 June 2026

Gerrymandering..could this solve the urban suburban vote splitting?




 This is a genuinely interesting electoral geography question. The MUNICIPAL affairs ministry is currently delivering programs to support the 2026 municipal election cycle, which makes this exactly the right moment to raise ward boundary reform. The minister is Rob Flack, who has held the position since March 2025.


Looking at the maps, the blue/purple wards are concentrated in Ottawa's urban core, while the outer wards are solidly green. Here's a balanced breakdown:

Pros

  • Reduced polarization — councillors would need to appeal to and represent both urban and suburban constituents, potentially moderating extreme positions on issues like transit vs. roads
  • City-wide perspective — every ward would have a stake in both LRT, cycling infrastructure and suburban road maintenance
  • Prevents policy silos — currently, purely urban councillors and purely suburban councillors can talk past each other on council
  • Reflects mobility patterns — many Ottawa residents live in suburbs but use urban services regularly

Cons

  • Dilutes minority communities of interest — urban residents with distinct needs (density, transit, walkability) lose concentrated electoral voice; this is classic cracking
  • Unworkable geographies — the wards would be oddly shaped and sprawling, making constituent service very difficult
  • Serves neither well — a councillor juggling Vanier and Orleans simultaneously has conflicting mandates
  • Still gerrymandering — regardless of intent, manipulating boundaries to produce specific political outcomes is the definition of the problem
  • Community identity matters — neighborhoods share school boards, BIAs, and social ties that ward boundaries should respect.

The Core Tension

The essential cracking of urban voting blocs to prevent issue-focused urban representation benefits suburban majorities. Ottawa's size makes truly mixed wards inevitable.

Better alternatives might include ranked ballot voting or proportional representation, which address polarization without distorting geography.

Pros

Claude finished the responseWhat are the pros and cons of gerrymandering the ward's in Ottawa so that the urban suburban splits are eliminated...each ward hensively
Weighed mixed-ward redistricting's representation trade-offs comprehensPros
  • Reduced polarization — councillors would need to appeal to and represent both urban and suburban constituents, potentially moderating extreme positions on issues like transit vs. roads
  • City-wide perspective — every ward would have a stake in both LRT, cycling infrastructure and suburban road maintenance
  • Prevents policy silos — currently, purely urban councillors and purely suburban councillors can talk past each other on council
  • Reflects mobility patterns — many Ottawa residents live in suburbs but use urban services regularly

Cons

  • Dilutes minority communities of interest — urban residents with distinct needs (density, transit, walkability) lose concentrated electoral voice; this is classic cracking
  • Unworkable geographies — the wards would be oddly shaped and sprawling, making constituent service very difficult
  • Serves neither well — a councillor juggling Vanier and Barrhaven simultaneously has conflicting mandates
  • Still gerrymandering — regardless of intent, manipulating boundaries to produce specific political outcomes is the definition of the problem
  • Community identity matters — neighborhoods share school boards, BIAs, and social ties that ward boundaries should respect

The Core Tension

Cracking BOTH urban  and suburban voting blocs prevents single issue-focused  representation.

Alternatives might include ranked ballot voting or proportional representation, which address polarization without distorting geography.

 A creative and geometrically coherent idea THAT deserves serious analysis involves radial gerrymandering.

How It Would Work

Parliament/City Hall as the focal point, roughly 24 pie slices radiating outward, each containing:

  • Dense urban core at the narrow inner end
  • Inner suburbs in the middle
  • Outer suburbs/greenbelt at the wide outer end

Genuine Advantages

  • Naturally self-correcting — as the city grows outward, each ward grows proportionally
  • Not arbitrary — the logic is transparent and defensible
  • Every councillor represents the full urban-rural spectrum
  • Equal population becomes more achievable geometrically
  • Reduces "us vs them" dynamic on transit, development, density debates

Real Problems

  • Parliament is on the riverbank — northern slices immediately hit Quebec, so you'd really get a semicircle, making southern slices very long and thin
  • Travel time — a ward stretching from Lowertown to Vars is a huge service area
  • Community coherence — Kanata and Orléans residents share nothing culturally or infrastructurally with each other despite being at similar distances
  • River communities cut awkwardly
  • Greenbelt and rural areas have very different service needs than the urban tip of the same slice

Tjis idea is more defensible than most gerrymanders because the logic is geometric rather than partisan. Some cities use similar radial approaches.

The semicircle problem is the biggest practical obstacle — Center it slightly south of Parliament.   Then geometry actually works sensibly.

What the Radial Lines Actually Create

Each slice pairs neighborhoods along the same travel corridor:

  • Eastern slice → Lowertown/Vanier → Gloucester → Orléans direction
  • Southern slice → Centretown → Nepean → Barrhaven
  • Western slice → Westboro → Bells Corners → Kanata
  • Northwestern slice → Hintonburg → Stittsville direction

Why This Is Actually Coherent

  • These communities already share bus routes and road corridors
  • Development pressure travels outward along these same axes
  • A Barrhaven resident's commute literally passes through their councillor's entire ward
  • Transit debates become internal to the ward rather than urban vs suburban council fights

This is more defensible than typical gerrymandering because:

  • The logic follows actual movement patterns
  • Communities paired together have genuine shared interests in their corridor's development
  • It's not partisan in any obvious way
  • The shape rationale is publicly explainable

Remaining Genuine Issues

  • The river boundary still creates unequal northern vs southern arc lengths
  • Very long thin wards are hard to canvass
  • Some communities straddle natural slice boundaries awkwardly
The Core Problem

Equal angle slices absolutely won't give equal population because:

  • Urban core density is enormous in a small area
  • Suburbs are moderate density over larger areas
  • Rural Ottawa is very sparse over huge areas

How You'd Actually Solve It

The slices would need unequal angles compensated by unequal radial length:

  • Dense urban corridor → narrow angle slice, short length
  • Moderate suburban corridor → medium angle, medium length
  • Sparse rural corridor → wide angle, long reach

Practical Consequence

In reference to the sketch above, the red lines would not be evenly spaced 

A Proposal

Dear Mayor Sutcliffe and Members of Ottawa City Council,


I write to propose a fundamentally different approach to ward boundaries for your consideration ahead of the 2026 municipal election cycle , one that I believe deserves formal debate and study.


The 2022 mayoral election results mapped by ward illustrated starkly what many Ottawans already feel: our current ward system has produced a council structurally divided between urban and suburban representatives. Councillors representing purely urban wards and those representing purely suburban wards increasingly talk past each other on the issues that matter most — transit, density, road infrastructure, and housing. This is not a failure of individuals; it is a failure of map design.


I propose that Ottawa study a radial ward model ,wards drawn as corridor slices radiating outward from the city centre, each ward containing both an urban core tip and a suburban or rural outer arc.


The concept is straightforward: rather than concentric or patch-quilt boundaries, each ward would follow a natural travel corridor from downtown Ottawa outward to the suburbs along the same routes residents actually use. An eastern ward would encompass the Lowertown-Vanier corridor through to Gloucester and Orléans. A western ward would follow the Westboro-Bells Corners-Kanata axis. Every councillor would represent constituents who share a geographic and transit corridor but differ in density and urban character.


The advantages deserve serious examination:


First, every councillor would have a direct stake in the full spectrum of city services — not just LRT or road resurfacing, but both. Transit debates that now divide council along ward lines would become internal ward conversations.


Second, corridor communities have genuine shared interests. Residents of the same radial corridor already share bus routes, arterial roads, and development pressure patterns. Their councillor would represent a coherent community of interest rather than an arbitrary administrative polygon.


Third, the model is geometrically transparent and publicly defensible. Unlike traditional gerrymandering, the rationale is immediately explainable to any resident.


Ward angles would be deliberately unequal to achieve population equality — denser corridors would have narrower slices, sparser corridors wider ones and I would encourage the city to commission a GIS analysis using Statistics Canada census tract data to model this properly.


I acknowledge the challenges. The Ottawa River creates an asymmetric boundary. Some communities straddle natural corridor divides. These are solvable design problems, not fundamental objections.


I ask that council direct staff or the next ward boundary review commission to formally evaluate this model alongside conventional approaches. It is unconventional precisely because our current arrangement is failing us.


Respectfully submitted,


Ottawa Buys a Dump - they made 'em an offer they couldn't refuse

 


The Dump issue tells you everything you need to know about decision making at City Hall.

Study this carefully. Look over here, not over there.

The Four Dump Options Outlined by Staff

(1) incineration at $497M–$862M, 

(2) continuing to use the current Trail Road dump alongside a private facility, 

(3) building a new municipal landfill at $439M–$761M, and 

(4) purchasing the Taggart site for $95M plus closing costs.

The Next Best Alternative: Option 2 — Private Tipping Fees

 The Taggart Miller site was going to be a landfill whether the city bought it or not — it already had all the necessary approvals. This is the critical fact. 

The city's realistic next-best alternative wasn't building something new; it was simply not buying and instead paying per-tonne tipping fees to Taggart as a private operator.

Here's why that's the true BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement):

  • No capital outlay. The city avoids a $95M+ upfront purchase.
  • Flexibility. Tipping fees could be renegotiated or the city could split waste across multiple private facilities over time.
  • Trail Road buys time. The current Trail Road landfill was near capacity, but it still had some remaining runway during which a longer-term strategy could have been developed.

Why the City Likely Rejected It

Mayor Sutcliffe argued that another solution might save taxpayers a few dollars a year for the next 10 years but cost hundreds and hundreds of dollars more in the long run. This is the classic "pay now vs. pay more later" argument — and over a 30-year lifespan, private tipping fees at commercial rates for 450,000 tonnes/year would almost certainly far exceed $95M. Taggart, knowing Ottawa had to go somewhere, would have been in a strong negotiating position on fees.

The Deeper Problem

I implicitly raised a governance issue: the city might have created its own landfill on city-owned land and obtained its own approvals — but that ship sailed long ago. 

Taggart spent two decades and significant capital getting approvals, and that regulatory groundwork is itself a large part of what the $95M was buying.

Bottom Line

The next best alternative was paying private tipping fees to Taggart as an operator rather than as a landlord — but it would have handed Taggart enormous pricing leverage for decades. 

 Ottawa was maneuvered (willingly or not) into a position where purchasing was the only fiscally defensible choice, making this less a "great deal" and more, as A SAPRANO put it, an offer it couldn't refuse.

From a goverance perspective where was the staff on this???

What Staff Should Have Done

A city the size of Ottawa absolutely has — and had — the planning staff, engineers, and consultants to model long-range waste capacity.

 Trail Road's finite lifespan was not a surprise. Taggart started accumulating land as far back as 2005, and if a private developer saw the opportunity two decades ago, city planners had the same data. 

The window to secure city-owned land, begin environmental assessments, and pursue approvals independently was wide open in the mid-2000s.

Why It Didn't Happen — The Real Reasons

There are several compounding factors:

1. The Political Cycle Problem Waste planning operates on 20-30 year horizons. Municipal politicians operate on 4-year cycles. No councillor wins votes by spending capital today on a problem that won't bite until after they're gone. Staff recommendations on long-horizon infrastructure tend to get shelved, deferred, or underfunded when there's no political urgency.

2. NIMBY Siting any waste facility — landfill, incinerator, transfer station — triggers fierce community opposition. 

Residents and local groups expressed concerns about secrecy, traffic (800 trucks daily), and environmental impacts on areas like Carlsbad Springs even for this purchase. Imagine the political cost of a city-led greenfield site selection process. 

Staff who advance those files face years of public hearings, legal challenges, and angry constituents. 

The path of least resistance is to wait. 

3. The Approvals Gap 

Taggart spent roughly two decades navigating approvals, with the permit changing as recently as May 2024 to include residential waste. 

That regulatory journey 

  • environmental assessments, 
  • provincial permits, 
  • community consultations 

is enormously expensive and time-consuming. 

The city could have done this on public land, but it would have required sustained political will across at least four or five different councils. That kind of continuity almost never happens. 

4. Staff Incentives and the "Crafted Estimates" 

Question:  Do staff estimates  lead council to a predetermined decision?

 When staff sense that leadership has a preferred outcome, analysis can be framed to support it not necessarily through dishonesty, but through the choice of what to compare, what costs to include, and what benefits to leave unstated. 

Notice that options 1 and 3 had no benefits discussed, only costs, while option 4 had strong advocacy from the mayor.

5. The Closed-Door Problem The vote followed a closed-door council meeting, which limits the kind of independent scrutiny that might have surfaced better alternatives earlier. 

Good long-range infrastructure planning needs public input. It creates accountability and surfaces options that internal staff processes miss. 

 Uncomfortable Conclusion

The city didn't "miss the boat" by accident. It missed it through a predictable combination of short-term political thinking, 

bureaucratic risk-aversion, and the 

near-impossibility of sustaining multi-decade infrastructure strategies across changing councils. 

Taggart, as a private actor with a single long-term business goal and no electoral calendar to worry about, simply out-planned the city — and then sold them the result at a substantial premium.

As I noted, as a professional project manager, this was two decades in the works pretty good planning just not by the city  pattern. Here's what's been shelved, deferred, or chronically underfunded in Ottawa over the past five years.

1. The Big Picture: An $11 Billion Infrastructure Hole

 Provincial asset management rules required Ottawa to publicly report its infrastructure funding gap. The numbers are stark: over the next 10 years, Ottawa faces an $11 billion shortfall in funding required to maintain and replace aging assets. Council approved 5% annual water rate increases and additional borrowing to address a $4 billion gap in water and wastewater infrastructure but the remaining $7 billion, covering roads, parks, facilities and other assets, was simply deferred. The dump decision fits squarely within this pattern. 

2. OC Transpo , Death by a Thousand Cuts

Transit has been the most visible casualty. Rather than investing to grow ridership, the city has repeatedly retreated:

OC Transpo projected a $35 million shortfall in fare revenue for 2024 due to post-pandemic ridership levels. Staff recommended fare hikes and service cuts, including aligning bus routes to "current ridership levels.

At the transit commission, councillors discussed digging into transit reserves, fare freezes, and possibly layoffs to fill a $50 million budget hole, a move the city's own chief financial officer acknowledged was "not sustainable." 

OC Transpo cut 74,000 hours of bus service in 2024, a 3.5% reduction. Critics noted that cutting services based on ridership volumes rather than investing in the system to attract more riders amounts to a self-fulfilling death spiral. 

Confederation Line trains were cut to every 10 minutes during midday hours, saving an estimated $1.6 million per year — a short-term fix that further erodes the transit system's appeal.

3. Affordable Housing — Targets Set, Targets Missed

Councillors set a target of creating 500 new affordable housing units per year — but have not reached that goal even once. The city's own finance staff reported it will not meet its long-term housing targets without significant new support from higher levels of government, needing roughly an additional $155 million per year. The gap between stated priorities and actual funding is striking. 

4. Roads, Parks and Facilities

Much of Ottawa's infrastructure — roads, pipes, arenas, fire stations — was built in the 1960s and 70s and is now reaching end of life. For decades, the city did not set aside enough each year to properly maintain and replace these assets. The bill is now coming due. While Toronto responded to the same pressure with property tax increases of 9.5% in 2024, under Mayor Sutcliffe, Ottawa chose to delay rather than confront the remaining gap. 

5. Spending on Developer-Driven Projects Instead

Perhaps most revealing is what did get funded. A mayoral candidate's commentary points out the priorities that crowded out long-term planning: Council chose to spend $500 million for Lansdowne to fix a broken Ottawa Sports and Entertainment Group business model, $600 million for the Tewin subdivision that the Taggart Group wants to build, and $95 million for a dump site appraised at $23 million and originally purchased by Taggart for $8 million. 

The Pattern

  • Short-term affordability optics 
  • low tax increases, 
  • no hard decisions) 

ARE consistently chosen over long-term fiscal responsibility. 

Staff have repeatedly identified the gaps — on transit, housing, roads, water — and council has consistently deferred, trimmed, or ignored the recommendations that required political courage to implement. 

The dump purchase is simply the most recent and visible consequence of that decades-long habit.I 

Let me know what you think.  Invite me to your hood!

peterkarwacki.overbrook@gmail.com


This time around, vote differently, vote wisely, vote for Peter Karwacki for Rideau Rockcliffe.