ADKAR

 

I organized a presentation by Nicole Foss at St.Paul's University. She was ahead of her time - just like me

ADKAR for Societal Resilience: A Framework for Local Action in an Era of Economic Contraction

The coming years will bring sustained high oil prices, inflation, depressed economic growth, and rising unemployment. Global supply shocks (especially through the Strait of Hormuz), ballooning public debt, and fragile just-in-time supply chains make distant solutions unreliable. The solution is not to wait for federal or international fixes. 

ADKAR — the proven individual change-management model — at the community and municipal level to build local resilience. This creates a practical, scalable framework called ADKAR for Community Resilience. It moves Ottawa (and every ward) from awareness of the crisis to sustained local self-reliance. Each stage builds on the ideas in my recent blog post: simplify, secure essentials (food, water, clothing, shelter), shorten supply chains, support local businesses, reduce debt, and use tools like time banks.

1. Awareness — Recognize the Reality

Goal: Ensure every resident and leader understands the structural nature of the challenges.

Key messages:Oil supply tightening and energy costs are permanent, not temporary.

National debt service is crowding out public services.

Globalization’s efficiencies have become fragilities.

Impacts will hit Ottawa hard: federal workforce disruption, housing price correction, transport shifts, and higher crime from economic stress.

Local actions:Ward-level town halls and one-page “Resilience Fact Sheets” distributed door-to-door.

Partner with libraries, community centres, and churches to run “Economic Weather Report” sessions.

Use simple visuals (e.g., “What $5 gasoline means for your grocery bill and commute”).

2. Desire — Create the Will to Change

Goal: Shift mindset from “someone else will fix this” to “we can build security together.”

Key messages:Local control over essentials is freedom, not sacrifice.

Mutual support (time banks, skill swaps) is stronger than distant welfare.

Resilience is patriotic and neighbourly — not partisan.

Local actions:Launch “Ottawa Tough Times, Strong Neighbourhoods” campaign with resident stories and success examples from past crises.

Highlight quick wins: community gardens already feeding families, tool libraries saving money, car-share pods reducing fuel dependence.

Public recognition events for early adopters (e.g., “Resilience Champion” awards).

3. Knowledge — Provide Clear, Practical Information

Goal: Give people and organizations the “how-to” knowledge they need.

Key topics:Personal/household: debt reduction, home energy audits, victory gardens, basic repair skills.

Neighbourhood: time banks, bulk-buying co-ops, local barter directories.

Municipal: zoning changes for mixed-use and small-scale manufacturing, support for informal transport (e.g., cargo bikes, e-bike corridors), community food storage.

Local actions:Free online and in-person workshops (via Ottawa Public Library and ward offices).

Publish a “Resilience Playbook” — simple guides on halving household expenses, starting a time bank, and retrofitting homes for higher energy costs.

Create a city-wide “Local Skills & Services Map” (digital + printed).

4. Ability — Build the Skills and Infrastructure

Goal: Turn knowledge into real capability.

Focus areas:

Unemployment: Retraining programs tied to local needs (urban farming, home retrofits, small manufacturing, care economy).

High oil prices & inflation: Expand community-supported agriculture, local energy projects (district geothermal, solar micro-grids), and walkable neighbourhood hubs.

Depressed growth: Incentivize multi-family housing conversions, support for home-based businesses, and ward-level economic development funds.

Local actions:Pilot “Resilience Hubs” in each ward — co-working spaces with tools, training, and time-bank coordination.

Partner with existing groups (e.g., Ottawa Food Bank, Community Housing, Transition Towns) to scale successful models.

Municipal policy changes: fast-track permits for backyard farms, tool libraries, and neighbourhood energy projects.

5. Reinforcement — Make the Changes Stick

Goal: Embed new behaviours so they survive political cycles and short-term price drops.

Mechanisms:Celebrate visible progress (annual “State of Ward Resilience” reports).

Tie city budgets and procurement to local resilience metrics.

Institutionalize time banks and community land trusts.

Build accountability through transparent ward dashboards showing unemployment, local food production, and energy costs.

Local actions:Annual neighbourhood resilience festivals with measurable results.

Policy that requires every new city plan or budget to pass a “Resilience Test.”

Cross-ward learning network so successful wards share templates.

Why This Framework Works

ADKAR succeeds because it is sequential and human-centred. By applying it at the community level, we create thousands of small, mutually reinforcing changes that add up to city-wide resilience. It directly addresses the blog post’s warnings: instead of waiting for national leadership that may not arrive in time, we build trusted local leadership and social cohesion now.This is not theoretical. It is actionable today in every Ottawa ward. 

As a candidate for city council, I am committed to making ADKAR for Community Resilience the operating system for Ward 13 — and to pushing it city-wide.If you want to be part of the solution, start with Awareness: read the full blog post, then join or host a neighbourhood conversation. The going is getting tough — but together we can make our community tougher.

When the going gets tough...I won't quit.

Peter Karwacki, PMP

Managing Director, Peer Metrics

Candidate for Ottawa City Councillor (Ward 13)

peermetrics.ca | peterkarwacki.blogspot.com

East end crossing

King's defensive opposition to the proposed bridge  vs. my proactive separation of issues with constructive alternatives is fact-based, ties directly to daily resident pain (trucks rattling windows downtown vs. highway backups), and avoids NIMBY accusations although those are very real. There has been at least one truck related fatality. Statistics are hard to come by.

King, in earlier terms (pre-2022): Voted No on several key files, including certain development approvals and budget elements (per 2022 election analyses).

Anti-racism role: 

King opposed motions seen as weakening policy language (e.g., 2025 racism/colonialism definitions debate).

King served as Deputy Mayor (June–Dec 2024)—a leadership role that likely reinforced majority alignment on procedural items.

Promise Fulfillment (Core Accountability Metric)

14 tracked promises for the current term.

43% completed (per Ottawa Accountability as of early 2026).

This is above the city-wide average (around 12% across all councillors) but still modest—over half remain unfulfilled or in progress. Voters can see measurable gaps between campaign commitments and results on issues like housing, infrastructure, or ward services.

Key Votes & Patterns

Budgets & Taxes (2025–2026 cycle)

king supported the 2026 budget overall (3.75% property tax increase: ~$166–$237 extra for average homeowners, including transit levy and police hikes).

King voted against elements like the transit fare hike and the large police budget increase (one of the biggest in recent years).

KING presented the draft positively in ward newsletters and consultations but voiced dissent on specific cost drivers. This shows some restraint on user fees and policing costs while backing the broader spending package.

Lansdowne 2.0 (Nov 2025 – high-profile fiscal test)

King voted No (project passed 15-10).

King cited Auditor General concerns over optimistic revenue assumptions, $418M+ public spending, and 45-year debt servicing on speculative returns. He called it fundamentally risky. This was one of his clearest "accountability" moments—pushing back against this mayor-backed megaproject on financial grounds rather than popularity.

Development, Heritage & Ward Issues

KING, as Chair of the Built Heritage Committee, consistently prioritizes preservation (e.g., heritage protections in Rockcliffe Park/New Edinburgh).

Manor Park sidewalks (2025): 

King deferred construction after resident opposition—responsive locally but drew criticism for overriding staff/planning timelines.

General pattern: 

King supports intensification/housing tools city-wide but then turns around and defends ward character on heritage and traffic/parking.

 (pre-2022): King voted No on several key files, including certain development approvals and budget elements (per 2022 election analyses).

Anti-racism role: King opposed motions seen as weakening policy language (e.g., 2025 racism/colonialism definitions debate).

Strength for accountability/anti-pandering: 

Challenge: King votes with the majority on most big budgets and tax increases, and his ward work (newsletters, consultations, heritage chair) keeps him visible and "present." 

King has no pattern of rubber-stamping every developer wish, but no consistent anti-spending crusade either.

Rideau-Rockcliffe relevance: 

King's votes often balance city-wide growth (housing, transit) with local pushback (heritage, sidewalks). Intensification votes contrast "results vs. relationships."

King's Positions on the East End Bridge Proposal

In his March 2025 column and June 27, 2025 newsletter, King reiterated firm opposition:

Minimal impact on truck traffic: Studies (e.g., 2021 NCC/IBI Group report) show it would divert only ~15% of King Edward Ave. trucks by 2050 — the core problem remains unsolved. That is untrue as this begs the wuestion of redirecting trucks to the proposed bridge

Shifts problems eastward: Would push more car traffic into east-end neighborhoods (Manor Park, Rockcliffe Park, Vanier), increasing noise, pollution, and safety risks. 

Induced demand: New capacity often generates more traffic, worsening congestion overall.

Environmental harm: Disrupts Ottawa River ecosystems, green spaces, and wildlife; undermines climate goals. Impacts on seniors, Montfort Hospital patients, etc.

Staggering cost: $2–4 billion misallocation — better spent on transit, housing, infrastructure repairs, homelessness, etc.

He has encouraged residents to oppose it in federal consultations and highlighted alignment with MP Mona Fortier. This stance aligns with long-standing community opposition in parts of his ward (especially Manor Park and Rockcliffe areas).

King positions himself as a community defender here, but  I contrast it with broader city needs for congestion relief and practical infrastructure.

Many in Ottawa (including some east-end voices and other councillors like Stéphanie Plante in Rideau-Vanier) argue a 6th crossing is essential to remove trucks from downtown/Lowertown, improve interprovincial flow, and support growth. Proponents see King's opposition as NIMBY protection of quieter ward pockets at the expense of city-wide relief.

Anti-pandering 

King's stance prioritizes vocal local subsets (e.g., heritage/quiet residential areas) over evidence-based regional solutions. 

 Is King's blocking a long-planned crossing (debated for 50+ years) accountable leadership, or pandering to immediate resident pushback while trucks continue rumbling through vulnerable areas?

King's opposition is popular in affected ward pockets but is obstructionist if traffic/truck issues worsen or if federal momentum builds.

 Low turnout in municipal races means supporters of the bridge can matter. Voters HAVE a clear choice on a tangible, high-stakes issue affecting daily commutes and quality of life.

When the going gets tough do you trust your leadership?

 

Earthwide, we are not running out of oil...while the cost of extraction does not yet exceeds its economic value, our cost of living is about to take a big jump as supply is constrained.

5 billion years of solar energy embodied in oil has been  squandered on plastic bags and straws. We burn it for electricity or air conditioning. We have recently called federal workers back to a centralized office. Madness.

"Since the age of the dinosaurs...to the run on gasoline" said Byrne in Nothing but Flowers.

The structural impact of 25% of oil supply drop at the Strait or Hormuz will be long term. Imagine long lines of TukTuks with empty gas tanks in East Asia.

Fossil fuels still dominate because they offer the highest energy density and versatility—renewables like solar/wind are unsuitable for heavy industry, shipping, aviation, and seasonal storage although nuclear options may change that.

Globalization amplifies this: supply chains move goods efficiently but create vulnerabilities from large single source suppliers dependent on cheap energy and  enforcement by military power. Think in terms of Iran and USA.

To this add the US national debt which now faces 5% yield as of today on its 30 year treasury bills.

The cost of interest on USA federal national debt is now more than the entire US Departments of War and Health and Human services...and it is growing by $1 trillion every 100 days.

The claims to all this debt will never be satisfied. Assets have to be liquidated to pay off debt as GDP slows.  As a result of the deflation of asset prices economic depression is a certainty.

The readjustment will happen quickly...think in terms of a popped bubble.
FINANCIAL Implosion is not going to be smooth and controlled.

Into this context place the current unresponsive political system. What is the likelihood that they will respond appropriately to the displacements?

Answer: they will not.

It is not transparent, accountable or reflexive to people's needs now. What then?

What are the solutions?

1. Simplification of processes
2. Controls over essentials of living
3. Local supply chains
4. Understanding local needs ( food, water, clothing, shelter)
5. Thriving Local businesses
6. Reduced dependance on external supports/ capital

" we caught a rattle snake, now we have something for dinner"

We have a big picture of where the world is going. The guessing game is the impact locally in Ottawa.

Reduce debt, control the essentials of your own existence, establish local communty time banks for exchange. Reduce expenses ( think in terms of half).

Unemployment will be very high. People will avoid debt of any type. People will move to smaller affordable dwellings. Housing prices will crash. These will be filled with multiple families and occupants.

People will not be able to afford private cars. Dark economy will grow for things like transport, think private buses.

"I thought we'd start over  I guess I was wrong"

Crime will increase ranging from petty larceny to home invasion. Social cohesion is critical. Think in terms of trusted leadership.

Build local resilience and self reliance.

2026 is an election year. Choose leadership that is up for the challenges I have described.

Go to the buffet!

 

The cost of oil increasing (doubling in six  months) feeds through to every part of the economy.

Food insecurity and cost of living increases are upon us.
Reduced government supports are likely.

What does this all mean?

Investors see slowing economic growth.
Real economic impacts will include reduced hiring.

The risk is global recession including economic retraction, persistent inflation, and weakening demand.

But sure go to the free buffet!

I would be delivering a strong message about resilency. I would be advocating for personal safety measures, food security cooperatives,  in fact anything that helps people earn more, spend less, help each other through community building.  Things are about to go sideways.

The Creature from the Past Lagoon: a wake up call for Ottawa Voters

 

Here is a wake-up call for every voter in Rideau-Rockcliffe and across Ottawa.

Our Canadian municipalities — cities and towns alike — are “creatures of the provinces,” no matter what your local councillors may tell you.Ottawa has no independent constitutional status. Every power we exercise, every bylaw we pass, and our very existence as a city comes from provincial legislation. Ontario alone has the exclusive right to create, regulate, change, or even dissolve municipalities.The province can restructure boundaries, remove powers, or impose new rules without our consent. We saw this clearly in 2001 when the Mike Harris Conservative government forced the amalgamation of Ottawa’s regional municipalities into the single city we have today. Local school boards have just felt the same heavy hand with recent provincial oversight and governance reforms.Even a City Charter is nothing more than a provincial statute that Queen’s Park can amend or override at any time.2026 is a municipal election year. Councillors are democratically elected, but we operate entirely within Ontario’s legislative framework. Ottawa is not a “senior” or equal level of government — we are a creature of the province.The province sees Ottawa differently than a local councillor chasing votes on sidewalks. We manage a multi-billion-dollar budget (over $5 billion operating in 2026), and the big files — especially the troubled LRT — demand real results, not endless pandering.

If the province loses patience with inefficiency and delay, it can step in decisively: appoint a supervisor, upload major services like transit, or impose major restructuring. The clutching and gnashing of teeth would be loud — but by then, dear voters, it would be too late.It’s time to elect councillors who understand this reality and focus on delivering results that keep the province as a partner, not a replacement.Practical leadership matters more than ever in Rideau-Rockcliffe. Let’s work together on real solutions instead of performative local politics.

Lead in the Water - King's wrong headed approach

 

Lead Pipes: Why Are We Waiting Decades When We Can Fix It This Year?
Councillor Rawlson King asked a perfectly reasonable question in the Environment & Climate Change Committee on April 21: Ottawa has roughly 30,000 homes with lead service pipes. 
"What’s the current replacement rate, and how many years will it actually take to finish the job?"
Staff couldn’t give him a straight answer. 
That silence tells you everything you need to know.
We’re talking about a program that sounds responsible — “replace the pipes” — but in practice is moving at the speed of a tired snail. 
Full replacement costs $5,000 to $12,000+ per household. The city offers a small rebate and only replaces its own portion when it happens to be digging up the street. The rest is voluntary. At this pace, thousands of Ottawa families, especially in older neighbourhoods like parts of Ward 13, will be drinking elevated lead for another 20 or 30 years.
This is classic government thinking: the perfect solution (rip out every inch of lead) delivered at an impossible speed. Meanwhile, kids keep getting exposed.
Here’s a better, practical question: 
Why not install point-of-use treatment right at the kitchen tap?
I’m not talking about pitcher filters you have to keep filling. I’m talking about under-sink systems that connect directly to your cold water supply line. They work automatically — whenever you turn on the dedicated filter faucet, clean water flows on demand. No manual filling, no hassle. These plumbed-in units (activated carbon or reverse-osmosis) remove lead and many other contaminants right where you need it.
Let’s put some real numbers on the table:

Health Canada already says point-of-use devices are an effective way to reduce lead exposure. Other cities have used them successfully as a bridge while doing full replacements. Why are we pretending this isn’t a valid option in Ottawa?
This isn’t about being cheap. It’s about being smart. It’s about results instead of virtue-signalling projects that take forever. We do the same thing with LRT — chase the perfect system while the basics (reliable service, clean water, functioning washrooms) get ignored.
Voters should be asking every councillor running this fall:
How many years are you willing to let lead stay in our taps while you wait for the perfect solution?
And more importantly: Why aren’t we protecting people today with automatic under-sink filters that already work?

Common sense says we can walk and chew gum. Replace pipes on a sensible schedule and install point-of-use under-sink treatment immediately. Anything less is just more Ottawa bureaucracy — all talk, no timely delivery.

Rawlson King’s Approach vs. My Approach

Councillor Rawlson King sees a problem with 30,000 lead pipes and asks staff: “How many years will it take to replace them all?”I see the same problem and ask: “How do we give every family safe water this year, not in 2045?”That single difference explains why Ward 13 needs a change.King’s mind works like most career politicians: focus on the perfect, long-term, expensive solution and hope the timeline works itself out. Ask questions, support the process, wait for staff reports.My mind works like a project manager who actually delivers: get measurable results for people now, while still doing the permanent fix on a realistic schedule. Install automatic under-sink plumbed filters for immediate protection. Subsidize them aggressively. Replace pipes as part of normal infrastructure work instead of a never-ending special program.One approach sounds responsible but leaves kids exposed for decades.
The other delivers safe water immediately and fixes the root cause over time.This isn’t about left or right. It’s about results versus process.
It’s about practical thinking versus bureaucratic thinking.That’s why my work as Councillor would be a vast improvement. Different mind, different outcomes. Ward 13 deserves someone who solves problems in real time, not just studies them.

Peter Karwacki
Managing Director, Peer Metrics
Candidate for Ward 13 (Rideau-Rockcliffe)