When the going gets tough do you trust your leadership?

 

Earthwide, we are not running out of oil...while the cost of extraction does not yet exceeds its economic value, our cost of living is about to take a big jump as supply is constrained.

5 billion years of solar energy embodied in oil has been  squandered on plastic bags and straws. We burn it for electricity or air conditioning. We have recently called federal workers back to a centralized office. Madness.

"Since the age of the dinosaurs...to the run on gasoline" said Byrne in Nothing but Flowers.

The structural impact of 25% of oil supply drop at the Strait or Hormuz will be long term. Imagine long lines of TukTuks with empty gas tanks in East Asia.

Fossil fuels still dominate because they offer the highest energy density and versatility—renewables like solar/wind are unsuitable for heavy industry, shipping, aviation, and seasonal storage although nuclear options may change that.

Globalization amplifies this: supply chains move goods efficiently but create vulnerabilities from large single source suppliers dependent on cheap energy and  enforcement by military power. Think in terms of Iran and USA.

To this add the US national debt which now faces 5% yield as of today on its 30 year treasury bills.

The cost of interest on USA federal national debt is now more than the entire US Departments of War and Health and Human services...and it is growing by $1 trillion every 100 days.

The claims to all this debt will never be satisfied. Assets have to be liquidated to pay off debt as GDP slows.  As a result of the deflation of asset prices economic depression is a certainty.

The readjustment will happen quickly...think in terms of a popped bubble.
FINANCIAL Implosion is not going to be smooth and controlled.

Into this context place the current unresponsive political system. What is the likelihood that they will respond appropriately to the displacements?

Answer: they will not.

It is not transparent, accountable or reflexive to people's needs now. What then?

What are the solutions?

1. Simplification of processes
2. Controls over essentials of living
3. Local supply chains
4. Understanding local needs ( food, water, clothing, shelter)
5. Thriving Local businesses
6. Reduced dependance on external supports/ capital

" we caught a rattle snake, now we have something for dinner"

We have a big picture of where the world is going. The guessing game is the impact locally in Ottawa.

Reduce debt, control the essentials of your own existence, establish local communty time banks for exchange. Reduce expenses ( think in terms of half).

Unemployment will be very high. People will avoid debt of any type. People will move to smaller affordable dwellings. Housing prices will crash. These will be filled with multiple families and occupants.

People will not be able to afford private cars. Dark economy will grow for things like transport, think private buses.

"I thought we'd start over  I guess I was wrong"

Crime will increase ranging from petty larceny to home invasion. Social cohesion is critical. Think in terms of trusted leadership.

Build local resilience and self reliance.

2026 is an election year. Choose leadership that is up for the challenges I have described.